Election Day

Barack Obama Elected President With Mandate for Change

When historians look back at the 2008 presidential landslide, they won't focus on the fact that Barack Obama — soon to be our 44th President and our first African American commander-in-chief — ran a smart and steady campaign. They won't focus on William Ayers or Joe the Plumber or socialism or racism. They won't debate whether John McCain blew it by targeting Pennsylvania or avoiding the press or ignoring the Rev. Jeremiah Wright or picking Sarah Palin. They won't remember the robocalls or "cling" or the Paris Hilton ad or the crazy chick who carved the B into her face. The pundits filling airtime on their 24-hour news channels might have cared, but posterity won't.

Full Story

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All times listed below are Eastern Standard Time (EST).

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11:45 p.m. - Karen Tumulty: This is what history looks like.

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11:41 p.m. - Michael Grunwald: I just rode home from the party on my bike - the new mandatory vehicle of the carbon-free Obama era - and caught the tail end of McCain's wonderful speech. It was another reminder that this country would be in a very different place if it wasn't for South Carolina 2000. Unsolicited advice to Republicans who think they would have done better with one of the losers from the primary: You. Are. Wrong. Just ask Lincoln Diaz-Balart or Michelle Bachmann or any of the other Republicans who would have lost if they hadn't had a plausible president on top of the ticket.

Well, JP and KT, I had to meet my deadline DURING our liveblog--the piece is now up on the website--but I'm going to wrap it up too. It's been a pleasure, and the High Sheriff has promised more liveblogging for the Super Bowl, or at least the next Project Runway finale. And Tammy: You have my humblest and insincerest apologies. Also: Commenter Andy, yes, of course I know where Bin Laden is too, but I'll have to tell you in a private email. This has been a pretty extraordinary way to experience history.

And I'd be remiss if I didn't resurrect my old tradition from washingtonpost.com: Hi Mom! Hi Dad! Hi Max!

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11:28 p.m. - Karen Tumulty: I'm out on the field, where mccain is all but inaudible in the bedlam and the tears.

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11:16 p.m. - James Poniewozik: Sorry to bolt right as things are getting all climactic, but I have a column deadline in about two hours and I need to restart my Mac, which is beachballing furiously. Here in the fake American hotspot of Brooklyn, people are blaring their horns and cheering in the street, so I'll have company in staying up late.

Let me get sappy for a minute and say that liveblogging this election and the debates have been a fantastic experience. I just want to thank all the commenters, who have made this a blast and kept me (relatively) honest. And thanks to Karen and Michael, who now seem like old pals though we've never physically worked in the same place. Politics aside, this has been a hell of a story, and I'm glad we've had the chance to experience it together. Good night, all.

Now I have to meet that deadline! Wait! I thought this election was supposed to magically make all my problems go away!

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11:22 p.m. - Karen Tumulty: Crowd going nuts. But you knew that.

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11:07 p.m. - Michael Grunwald: I'm thinking of that New Yorker story from 2004 that recounted how some local politician from Illinois had come to a White House function with an Obama button, and Bush did a double-take because he thought it said Osama. And the woman says: It's Obama. And you're going to hear a lot more about him, Mr. President. And now Barack Hussein Obama is going to take his job.

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11:06 p.m. - James Poniewozik: Brokaw, who generally tends to wax most emotional over the Greatest Generation, is breaking up talking about Obama's victory, in the context of the civil rights movement. Sounds genuinely moved. I'll cut him a break for the fact that he just called Obama "bright [and] articulate."

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11:03 p.m. - James Poniewozik: For all the magic walls, holograms, and so forth, the most impressive special effect tonight was the sea of people in Grant Park. There is no substitute for human faces for theater. It looks like a Super Bowl, but bigger. This is what the Celeb ad didn't get, by the way. This sort of thing doesn't matter for everything, it doesn't solve policy problems or end deficits. But it really does matter.

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11:02 p.m. - Michael Grunwald: Wow.

When Obama was a kid, he would have had to ride the back of the bus in a lot of this country. And now he's going to run the country.

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10:58 p.m. - Michael Grunwald: That was an interesting point Jeff Toobin just made about the last five candidates with the better war records losing. But I think that describing Al Gore as a "war hero" is a bit of a stretch. He was an Army journalist! Did he type heroic press releases?

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10:57 p.m. - James Poniewozik: Wait for it. At 11:00:01, the networks will be forced to report the news.

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10:55 p.m. - Michael Grunwald: More evidence that it's over: The worrywart liberals here have shifted their discussion from how the mean Republicans are going to steal the election to what's going to happen if Obama gets assassinated.

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10:53 p.m. - Karen Tumulty: @JP: It would be cheaper, which is why you should not suggest this to the High Sheriff.

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10:52 p.m. - Karen Tumulty: Commenter Chaddog (second shoutout tonight): Will.I.Am = Luke Skywalker. Holograms are absurd....

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10:51 p.m. - James Poniewozik: I'm racking my brain for how the hologram can be employed in future actual news coverage. Can we have holograms of reporters standing outside in a hurricane?

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10:49 p.m. - Michael Grunwald: That Will.i.am hologram looked like Lando Kalryssian dressed as a character from Glory.

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10:49 p.m. - James Poniewozik: Finally an issue that I am qualified to speak to as a TV critic! Brit Hume and Karl Rove are talking about the idea of Obama re-imposing the "Fairness Doctrine," to essentially shut down conservative talk radio. This has become an obsession of conservative talkers lately. However, Obama has flatly stated he opposes re-imposing the Fairness Doctrine. As a media libertarian, I would oppose Obama if he were to make this move, but seeing as how he has said just the opposite, this seems like a phony threat.

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10:46 p.m. - Karen Tumulty: From our stringer Andy Mannix:

Michele Bachmann is off to an early and substantially widening lead in the race for the Minnesota Sixth District House seat. With more than 90 percent of precincts reported, Bachmann is up 4.7 percent on her DFL opponent, Elwyn Tinklenberg. Bachmann spokeswoman Michelle Marston said they are confident that this lead will continue to grow as more precinct results are tallied.

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10:45 p.m. - James Poniewozik: @KT: and keep in mind that about half of its electoral votes are not Real.

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10:44 p.m. - Karen Tumulty: @JP: Virginia is a socialist, redistributionist state.

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10:42 p.m. - James Poniewozik: The communists at Fox News have called Virginia for Obama.

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10:41 p.m. - Michael Grunwald: @KT. Shays was one of the races to watch in my story today. He's an impressive guy, but it's hard to be a moderate Republican when moderates seem to hate Republicans and Republicans seem to hate moderates. And now there are none left in the House in New England.

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10:40 p.m. - Michael Grunwald: I'd say the story of the night is that the Bradley Effect is nowhere near as big as the Bush Effect.

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10:39 p.m. - Karen Tumulty: From the AP by way of Politico:

Jim Himes (D) has defeated Rep. Chris Shays (R) in Connecticut's Fourth District, AP reports.

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10:35 p.m. - James Poniewozik: Jon Stewart and Stephen Colbert are on live now. They actually seem more alive when taped. Good segment just now, though, of Daily Show correspondents trying to get white voters to admit to the Bradley effect.

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10:29 p.m. - Karen Tumulty: @HS: I thought Steve Schmidt sounded sort of sheepish in his statements earlier tonight. Same diff...

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10:27 p.m. - James Poniewozik: Woman at Howard University Obama party breaks down in tears against a CBS reporter who asks her for comment. Really touching.

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10:24 p.m. - High Sheriff: Did the McCain advisors concede to you?

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10:23 p.m. - Karen Tumulty: @JP: Word is that big margin for Obama in the Virginia polls hasn't materialized. Which, by the way, is something Larry Sabato has been saying for weeks.

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10:22 p.m. - Michael Grunwald: CNN reports that McCain advisors are conceding. High Sheriff, do you think we can call it now?

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10:21 p.m. - James Poniewozik: John King's magic map has a few states colored blue that CNN has not called yet: Colorado, Florida, Virginia, North Carolina. Is there something they're trying to tell us?

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10:20 p.m. - Karen Tumulty: Just got this news release from Tufts University. If these figures are true, the youth vote surge that everyone predicted is kind of underwhelming. This turnout seems more like an everyone surge:

Medford/Somerville, MA - Young people (ages 18-29) represented 18 percent of the voters in today's election, according to the early released National Exit Polls (NEP) conducted by Edison/Mitofsky. This is the one point higher than in 1996, 2000, and 2004, when young voters represented 17 percent of voters in each presidential election, according to the NEP.

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10:14 p.m. - Karen Tumulty: Just caught this in a Scherer post at Swampland:

By contrast, McCain's Election Night celebration has a country club feel. The palm trees are lit with color-changing pastel lights and the women in the crowd sip wine in black cocktail dresses.

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10:13 p.m. - Michael Grunwald: @KT. How's he trading on Intrade right now? I'm thinking Johnny Mac is doing worse than Freddie Mac.

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10:11 p.m. - Karen Tumulty: @MG: What do you mean? He JUST LOST ARKANSAS.

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10:09 p.m. - Michael Grunwald: Isn't it kind of bizarre to hear these pundits already talking about how Obama needs to tack back to the center? Why? Because of the nationwide embrace of his progressive candidacy and rejection of the right? Personally it would please me if Obama governed more or less from the middle, but what exactly about these election returns suggests that's a political necessity for him?

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10:09 p.m. - Karen Tumulty: @JP: I hope so. Or even a kitchen appliance of some kind.

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10:06 p.m. - James Poniewozik: @KT: Is Oprah going to give all million people in Grant Park a car?

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10:05 p.m. - James Poniewozik: Euphemortem alert: Tara Wall on CNN says she got an email from a GOP insider saying it's over foor McCain. Anderson Cooper: "He's probably been watching CNN."

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10:05 p.m. - Karen Tumulty: Oprah's here!!!! Jay Newton-Small says she just did a giddy little dance outside the VIP tent.

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10:03 p.m. - Karen Tumulty: Senator Bob Casey of Pa is talking to some reporters here in the tent, noting that Obama did much better with older and white voters in his state than anyone thought possible a month ago. So what of the “Bradley factor”? “I always thought there was a possible prejudice factor in the state,” he said. “I hope what this means is that we've washed that away, not only in our state, but across the country.”

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10:02 p.m. - James Poniewozik: Incidentally, Halperin has gone rogue at The Page.

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10:01 p.m. - James Poniewozik: So Iowa polls stay open until 9 p.m. C.T.? I spent a summer in Davenport. It was not exactly the city that never slept.

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9:54 p.m. - James Poniewozik: @MG: I will note that the pinko socialists at Fox News called New Mexico some time ago.

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9:53 p.m. - Michael Grunwald: CNN just called New Mexico for Obama. McCain's path to victory is to get into a time machine and put his negative ads back on the air in South Carolina in 2000.

In all fairness I should say that this is closer than I thought it will be. Virginia looks like it's going down to the wire. Florida and North Carolina and Indiana too. McCain did a creditable job, and he probably saved a few Republican congressmen by keeping it semi-close.

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9:53 p.m. - Karen Tumulty: From the McCain Election Night HQ, Michael Scherer reports: Elvis is in the building.

Not that McCain is calling it, or anything...

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9:45 p.m. - James Poniewozik: More seriously: we are witnessing the Russert Deficit here. I don't think anyone remaining feels they have the Big Dog stature to step in and just flat-out say it before 11 p.m.

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9:44 p.m. - James Poniewozik: Campbell Brown was basically torturing poor John King. He put everything pink except the West Coast and said he could not get John McCain to 270. Then begged people on the West Coast to vote.

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9:44 p.m. - Michael Grunwald: @KT: John King is TV's liaison to the reality-based community. >

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9:43 p.m. - Karen Tumulty: @MG: I think John King just sort of called it.

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9:40 p.m. - Michael Grunwald: I really do love John King. Campbell Brown just asked him to show him McCain's path to victory. He makes a face and goes: Okaaay....

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9:40 p.m. - Karen Tumulty: Dana Bash saying McCain's on his way to his rally. And that they have turned off the news there.

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9:39 p.m. - James Poniewozik: There is somebody off camera holding a cattle prod on Olbermann, to keep him from calling it. "Somebody check my math here," he says, daring the panel to name which of California, Washington, Oregon or Hawaii McCain is going to win. Uncomfortable moment. David Gregory reminds him that people are still voting on the West Coast. Chris Matthews: "You have a jeweler's eye." Can the dam hold until 11 p.m.?

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9:37 p.m. - Michael Grunwald: Oh, Tammy, we kid because we love.

So KT, what are Bush and Cheney thinking right now? I've got to say, Cheney giving McCain that big wet kiss a few days ago suggested to me that Cheney really, really hates McCain.

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9:37 p.m. - Karen Tumulty: Lots of big hugs among the Obama staffers.

Not that they are calling anything...

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9:34 p.m. - Karen Tumulty: Tammy announces: I'm going to go crash a less-brutal blog. Or possibly just go play WordTwist on Facebook. Harrumph.

She'll be back. Not that I'm calling it...

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9:34 p.m. - Michael Grunwald: I'm getting irked all over again remembering all the gasbags explaining how working-class whites who voted for Hillary would never support the black guy in the general election. Same with Latinos. Gee, who could have imagined the Democrats would vote for the Democrat?

I-told-you-so alert.

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9:30 p.m. - Karen Tumulty: Blitzer calling Florida “an incredibly close state.” (Insert joke here.)

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9:28 p.m. - James Poniewozik: As soon as I say the battleground states are co-operating for the networks, two nets call Ohio. But remember, we all have to entertain the possibility that McCain will snag Washington and Oregon.

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9:28 p.m. - Michael Grunwald: @HS: I said it in 2006! I waited until July to say it in print.

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9:27 p.m. - James Poniewozik: Fox News appears to have the fast trigger finger tonight. They have Obama at 200, including Ohio. Because they're totally biased for him.

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9:26 p.m. - High Sheriff: @MG: Didn't you say that in August?

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9:26 p.m. - Michael Grunwald: NBC just called Ohio for Obama. High Sheriff, can I say it's over now without pretending it's not really over?

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9:25 p.m. - Karen Tumulty: Tammy also protests my earlier post about her: I am not 'slow.' I was dumbfounded by the irony.

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9:23 p.m. - Karen Tumulty: Tammy writes: @JP: I know what you mean. I just opened the fridge and saw Axelrod's face on a low-carb tortilla.

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9:22 p.m. - Karen Tumulty: @MG: I assume on the McConnell race that they know what's going on with the vote that isn't in yet. Think there was only 65% in.

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9:21 p.m. - James Poniewozik: So far, the battleground states are co-operating with the networks, providing grist without yet forcing the decision to call the race. Will they hold out through the end of prime-time?

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9:20 p.m. - Michael Grunwald: CNN just called it for Senator McConnell, although it sure looks close. That means the Republicans probably won't have to change the name of their party tonight.

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9:19 p.m. - Karen Tumulty: Tammy's a little slow tonight: MG is calling me stupid?

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9:18 p.m. - James Poniewozik: I'm not sure if there's been a moment tonight that David Axelrod has not been on TV.

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9:16 p.m. - Michael Grunwald: That's huge about Feeney and Keller losing around Orlando. Again: My Republican mother-in-law and her Republican partner live there, and they're voting for Obama after voting for Bush twice. This is a wave. (I mean, this might be a wave!)

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9:13 p.m. - Karen Tumulty: Not that he's calling the race, but Alex Perry reports from Kenya:

Malik Obama, 50, Obama's half-brother and best man at his wedding:

“I just feel that this is a great, great, great moment. It means a new era, a new era of thinking about the direction of the world. It's the best thing. This is Abraham Lincoln declaring the Emancipation Proclamation. This is everything. This is the best of everything rolled into one. It's an explosion.”

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9:11 p.m. - Karen Tumulty: Our friend Tammy Jones notes: Nicole Wallace already giving Katie Couric the 'it's not over til it's over' quote, at barely 9pm? And basing her faux-optimism on fact that her own parents only just left for the polls to vote? Unless the entire state of Missouri mass-adopted her, I don't think she should be pinning so much hope on mom and dad....

Not that she's calling the race...

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9:10 p.m. - Michael Grunwald: Another substance alert: Sometimes we talk about "the economy" like it's a political abstraction. But even at my little Yuppie house party here in South Beach, it's a huge deal. Our host Gael works at the awesome South Beach Marimekko store -- make sure you click on www.marimekkomiami.com -- but her boss has been cutting back her hours. And I know a bit about that store's problems, because the boss is the mom of my 7-month-old. Meanwhile, Vivek was just laid off from his law firm, and Liz was laid off from the Children's Museum. Then there's Melly, who's the publicist for Quixx, whose sales are down even though they were rated the top automobile scratch remover in Consumer Reports. Carolina's non-profit has lost funding from the state and the county. Jay's an attorney who can't afford to buy new brakes for his car. And Amanda's worried she won't be able to get student loans.

I'd say 100 percent of this room considers the economy the top issue.

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9:04 p.m. - Karen Tumulty: Meanwhile, looks like there may be carnage down the ballot. We get this from Roll Call:

The first two House Republicans have fallen tonight. Rep. Tom Feeney (R-Fla.) has lost his re-election bid to former state Rep. Suzanne Kosmas (D) in the 24th district, according to the Orlando Sentinel. In Florida's 8th district, Rep. Ric Keller (R) was defeated by attorney Alan Grayson (D) with three-quarters of the precincts reporting.

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9:02 p.m. - James Poniewozik: Whoops! Brit Hume accidentally calls Ohio for Obama, calls it back about 15 seconds later.

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9:01 p.m. - James Poniewozik: Fox News' bottom of the screen graphics just awarded its 9 p.m. electoral votes a minute early. Wisconsin, Ohio, New Mexico, Minnesota, Michigan, New York for Obama... North Dakota, Wyoming for McCain

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8:58 p.m. - James Poniewozik: Local NBC News reports that Chris Shays went jogging twice today. Fittest man in Congress!

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8:57 p.m. - Michael Grunwald: @KT: Did Tammy really call Arnold Schwarzenegger stupid? That's like James Carville calling Marcel Marceau a loudmouth.,/p>

Good to have you with us, Tammy!

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8:52 p.m. - Michael Grunwald: @KT: Did Tammy really call Arnold Schwarzenegger stupid? That's like James Carville calling Marcel Marceau a loudmouth.

Good to have you with us, Tammy!

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8:52 p.m. - Karen Tumulty: Jesse jackson (his 88 campaign was the first I covered) just kissed my hand and told me: "This is a huge deal, and a big paradigm shift in the South."

Not that he's calling the race....

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8:48 p.m. - Karen Tumulty: Seriously, this rally site is amazing. Windows of one of the downtown buildings are lit up to spell USA.

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8:46 p.m. - Karen Tumulty: Pool Report #7 (Amy Chozick, The Wall Street Journal):

Obama left the Hyatt in his motorcade and arrived at his Hyde Park home at 7:35pm.

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8:45 p.m. - James Poniewozik: Band at McCain rally is playing Joe Jackson's "Is She Really Going Out With Him?" a song in the voice of a guy wondering why someone picked the other guy over him.

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8:42 p.m. - Michael Grunwald: About my home state: I've always thought that if Obama loses any swing states, Florida is the likeliest. And it's because of race: old Cubans in Little Havana, old Jews in Boca and old crackers in North Florida all have certain attitudes that tend to embarrass their grandkids at family gatherings. And I see that it's pretty close so far.

But I don't think he's going to lose Florida, either.

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8:40 p.m. - James Poniewozik: @MG: NBC has real-mortemed Dole.

Also: Chuck Todd paying homage to Tim Russert on a "virtual whiteboard." Sweet, and sad.

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8:39 p.m. - James Poniewozik: They're spray-painting red on Georgia on NBC's Rockefeller Plaza skating rink map. If they don't have a curling match there by the end of the night, it's a waste of ice.

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8:38 p.m. - Michael Grunwald: John King just euphemortemed for Elizabeth Dole and John Sununu. I feel kind of bad for Sununu, because he's a principled small-government free-market conservative--although hey, this isn't a real I-told-you-so moment for small-government free-market conservatives.

I feel kind of not-at-all bad for Dole.

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8:36 p.m. - James Poniewozik: NBC News has more Greek columns on their set than Barack Obama. No wonder the Republicans think the network's in the tank for him.

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8:35 p.m. - Karen Tumulty: Tammy's getting warmed up: I predict Arnold Schwarzenegger and Sarah Palin in an "Are You Smarter Than A Fifth-Grader?" smackdown for the GOP nomination in 2012...

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8:34 p.m. - Michael Grunwald: @KT: An excellent scenario! Except he doesn't win.

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8:33 p.m. - Karen Tumulty: We hear from Tammy, who is late catching up to my computer problem: Did you leave your laptop alone in a room with MG before you left?

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8:32 p.m. - Karen Tumulty: @MG: What about my dream scenario? He wins, gets expelled from the Senate and Sarah Palin appoints herself to replace him.

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8:32 p.m. - Michael Grunwald: @KT I remember when people thought McCain would run well, period.

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8:31 p.m. - Michael Grunwald: Let's go back to the Grunwald simple-o-meter: Was Ted Stevens convicted? Yes? Then he loses. No need to wait.

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8:31 p.m. - Karen Tumulty: Obama just won NH. I remember when people thought McCain would run well there.

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8:30 p.m. - Karen Tumulty: Sununu loses. McConnell survives. But WHAT ABOUT UNCLE TED??? Polls close in Alaska at 1 a.m. Eastern.

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8:26 p.m. - James Poniewozik: OMG. On NBC, am watching officials in Palm Beach staring at ballots. Had to check the graphics for the "LIVE" tag to make sure it was not file footage from 2000.

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8:25 p.m. - Michael Grunwald: Well, then it would be OVER. Like it is now. Except I'm not supposed to say that.

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8:22 p.m. - Karen Tumulty: crickets

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8:22 p.m. - Karen Tumulty: JN-S also reports that the food they are selling out on the field is much better than the stuff on the steam tray here in the tent, which is part of the $1,000-a-person deal we are getting in here.

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8:21 p.m. - James Poniewozik: @MG and KT: Serious question, though. If there is one more big call for Obama—Ohio, Florida, Virginia—what's the case for a McCain win? You can let the crickets answer if you like.

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8:19 p.m. - Karen Tumulty: Jay Newton-Small has been wandering the crowd. Reports a woman named Cassandra Inglesby, a 20-year-old student, in platform white moonboots, knee-high socks and a poodle skirt. Very retro for an Obama event.

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8:18 p.m. - James Poniewozik: Electoral counts... Fox O 81 M 39; NBC: O 103 M 34; CNN: O 77 M 34; ABC: O 102 M 34; CBS: O 81 M 39

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8:15 p.m. - Michael Grunwald: @HS: Sorry, High Sheriff! IF Obama wins. IF.

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8:14 p.m. - Karen Tumulty: High sheriff does not like my idea of having the liveblog call the election. Or as he put it: Don't go rogue on me.

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8:11 p.m. - James Poniewozik: As long as we're getting all speculate-y here: what if the big story of the election turns out to be, the exit polls were—gasp!—right? That'll be a shocker.

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8:10 p.m. - Michael Grunwald: There goes John King showing how Obama is outperforming Kerry by 10 points in Orlando. My mother-in-law lives there--two-time Bush voter, one-time Obama voter. It's over! (I mean, IF it's over...)

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8:09 p.m. - James Poniewozik: @MG: I dare you to call 2012!

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8:09 p.m. - James Poniewozik: Mollytink in the comments writes: "Someone should tell John King it's pronounced COZ-EE-OS-KO. Or else suggest not randomly picking counties..." Well, fair enough. But having grown up near MY-lan (Milan) Mich and LY-ma (Lima) Ohio, I think you have to cut people a little slack for our idiosyncratic Midwestern pronunciations.

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8:09 p.m. - Michael Grunwald: I already did!

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8:07 p.m. - Karen Tumulty: So, guys, when should the Liveblog call the election?

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8:03 p.m. - James Poniewozik: NBC calls Penn for Obama. And Chris Matthews has essentially called the election: "The McCain campaign plan for victory has crashed." Not an actual call, but another pre-mortem.

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8:03 p.m. - Karen Tumulty: McCain just won South Carolina. Another squeaker.

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8:02 p.m. - James Poniewozik: Every time CNN rings that little tone that says someone has won a state, I think I got an email.

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8:01 p.m. - Karen Tumulty: Obama just carried Massachusetts. That was close...

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8:00 p.m. - James Poniewozik: @MG: Agreed. As easy as it is to make fun of, the magic map is one of the more informative applications of technology, especially for the county by county breakdowns. As opposed to the Leia-grams.

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7:58 p.m. - Michael Grunwald: If you've been watching John King and his magic map--and as long as I keep trashing the talking heads I should say that John King is really good--he's basically saying that Obama is doing way, way, way better than John Kerry. And Kerry didn't finish way, way, way behind.

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7:47 p.m. - Karen Tumulty: This is obama and his press pool as they prepare to board his campaign plane for its very last flight. I'm over toward the left. Obama told us all to say: “Margarita!”

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7:46 p.m. - James Poniewozik: Metaphor junkies: Don't forget that Dan Rather is anchoring Election Night on HDNet, with guests including Nate Silver of fivethirtyeight.com. BBC America promises to have Ricky Gervais among its guests.

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7:45 p.m. - Michael Grunwald: @JP: Euphemortem?

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7:43 p.m. - Michael Grunwald: @KT: Yes, it will be fun to watch Mitt run in 2012 as a moderate-turned-conservative-turned-moderate. Maybe he'll move to Ohio, too.

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7:42 p.m. - James Poniewozik: We need a coinage for the early postmortems being delivered on the election (currently listening to Stephanopoulos). "Premortem"?

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7:41 p.m. - James Poniewozik: @KT: Mitt! From your keyboard to God's ears. Let the dog out! Whoot! Whoot!

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7:40 p.m. - Karen Tumulty: @MG: I say keep an eye on mitt. You heard it here first.

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7:38 p.m. - James Poniewozik: Further on the "too early" terminology: NBC says Ohio and Virginia are too early to call with Obama leading. For anyone with the weakest decoder ring, the signals are being sent. David Gregory should just mouth, "He's winning."

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7:38 p.m. - Karen Tumulty: Now they have turned on six spotlights pointing into the sky. Next: the batsignal.

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7:37 p.m. - Michael Grunwald: @JP: Yes, I agree that the GOP will probably overreact. McCain was a good candidate in a bad year. But a lot of the McCain-type Republicans--and especially the Crist-type Republicans--are going to lose tonight, because they've got less safe seats. So only the cocoon will be left on the island...

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7:36 p.m. - James Poniewozik: @KT: Nielsen (and others) do track out-of-home viewing now. I suspect more people watch TV on Jumbotrons now than in their actual homes.

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7:36 p.m. - Karen Tumulty: Ten more states close at 8.

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7:35 p.m. - Karen Tumulty: I'm counting 26 flags onstage. Wonder if this means obama doesn't have to wear one on his lapel.

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7:33 p.m. - Karen Tumulty: I'm outside now. They have just opened the gates and it looks like the oklahoma land rush. Cnn playing on the jumbotron out here too. Our corporate overlords will be happy that obama is boosting their viewership like this.

@JP: do these folks count for the nielsens?

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7:33 p.m. - James Poniewozik: @MG: Re the future of the GOP. I'm an amateur, but parties generally overreact in defeat, no? How many GOPers will conclude that John McCain was not moderate enough if he loses? I would not be making the Crist '12 T-shirts yet.

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7:31 p.m. - James Poniewozik: Probably old news to the political geeks, but Ohio is "too early to call" while North Carolina is "too close to call." Note the distinction. "Close" is closer than "early."

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7:31 p.m. - Michael Grunwald: Substance alert: I see that Mitch Daniels was reelected in Indiana. As you guys know I'm somewhat obsessed with the now-what for the Republican Party after their castrophe tonight--Oops! I mean IF they have a catastrophe tonight--and Daniels is a pretty good now-what. He was an oft-overruled voice of sanity in the first-term Bush administration--actually a kind of tragic figure who put his loyalty to Bush over his loyalty to principle. But now he's getting to govern his way in Indiana, and my sense is he's doing a good job.

I still want to hear what you guys think about the future of the AIG, I mean the GOP.

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7:26 p.m. - James Poniewozik: Times Square crowd on ABC News holding up giant sign: "CASSOULET FOREVER!" Yes, we all hate government pork -- except when it's braised with duck and white beans!

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7:21 p.m. - Michael Grunwald: Also hilarious on cnn: the constant scoreboard stuck at 8-3 for mccain. Ballsy of him to go for two so early in the game, don't you think?

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7:19 p.m. - James Poniewozik: My kids, huge Star Wars fans, LOVE the Jessica Yellin hologram. (Luke Skywalker voice: "She's beautiful!")

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7:17 p.m. - Michael Grunwald: I haven't even started drinking and wolf blitzer appears to be interviewing a hologram of princess leia.

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7:16 p.m. - Karen Tumulty: CNN's holograms are freaky.

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7:15 p.m. - James Poniewozik: Speaking of Fox, their poll-countdown clock seems to have been done by the graphics people from 24. Doot... doot... doot.... doot...

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7:13 p.m. - James Poniewozik: Speaking of the slowness of PBS: remember when Fox News used to be the cable network with the loudest action and the busiest graphics? They're positively soothing now. Like a mudbath. I actually like their relatively no-frills setup.

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7:12 p.m. - Karen Tumulty: Going to check out the buffet table.

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7:11 p.m. - Karen Tumulty: My husband writes: GOP conceding on Dole!

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7:08 p.m. - Karen Tumulty: Commenter Chaddog writes: @Karen -- if you get sick of the scene at Grant Park, I'm drinking wine and eating Chinese up in River North here in Chicago with some friends, waiting for returns to roll in....

Can I bring a few hundred friends? Big fear here is that the election gets decided after the bars close.

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7:07 p.m. - James Poniewozik: God, switching over from the frantic cable news to Shields and Lehrer conversing on PBS is like listening to the Ents talk in The Lord of the Rings. Pontificate faster!

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7:05 p.m. - Karen Tumulty: I know these poll-closing times, by the way, because the Obama campaign gave us a little card with all of them on it, along with the 2004 results in each state. It's part of their awesomeness.

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7:04 p.m. - Karen Tumulty: First round of states has closed: IN, KY, SC, VT, GA, FL, VA

At 7:30 p.m. EASTERN, we'll get: OH, NC, WV

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7:03 p.m. - James Poniewozik: The whole "socialism" charge probably locked down all those Bernie Sanders voters in Vermont for Obama.

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7:01 p.m. - James Poniewozik: Wolf Blitzer: "We're about to make a projection!" For Vermont and Kentucky! Oh, you tease.

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7:01 p.m. - Karen Tumulty: Hard reboot has fixed my problem. Doesn't it always?

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6:59 p.m. - James Poniewozik: Gloria Borger on CNN: "This is not your father's Virginia." Is it still for lovers?

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6:58 p.m. - Karen Tumulty: Latest pool report: Sen. Obama left the Attack Athletic Center on Chicago's west side at 4:47 p.m. after playing basketball with some friends.

Meanwhile, Obama staffers are claiming not to believe the exit polls, even as they obsess over them.

Also, Biden traveling press corps just walked in, and got seated at the back of the tent. Obama obviously does not intend to follow the Cheney model if he gets elected.

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6:56 p.m. - James Poniewozik: OK, I am not making predictions here. But the way the analysts are talking about the election—in the past tense—on the cable roundtables is not very subtle. The whole notion of not calling it seems fairly semantic.

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6:53 p.m. - Michael Grunwald: I always thought "cast of thousands" was just a figure of speech, until CNN started hauling in experts off the street to pontificate about politics. Of course our boss is there; half the country is there! They're going to have to give that studio a few electoral votes!

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6:48 p.m. - James Poniewozik: @KT: Funny, I always assumed that Mac people leaned Obama. Despite the fact that their computer shares the opponent's nickname.

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6:47 p.m. - Karen Tumulty: Five tech guys and a tech woman.

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6:47 p.m. - Karen Tumulty: Make that five tech guys.

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6:45 p.m. - Karen Tumulty: @JP: tech guy muttering something about not knowing anything about Macs.

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6:45 p.m. - James Poniewozik: By the way, Time's editor, Rick Stengel, was just on the CNN panel. Mentioned that we'll be up all night putting out the election issue. Note to commenters: when you have to work overtime, your boss doesn't announce it on national TV.

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6:44 p.m. - Karen Tumulty: FYI: CNN is playing on the big screens in the press tent. Fox doesn't exist here, I guess.

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6:43 p.m. - James Poniewozik: @KT: You're with Obama, right? Maybe some of the Google or facebook guys have some of their tech people there. If you were with McCain, Meg Whitman could help you put a no-reserve auction on eBay.

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6:42 p.m. - Karen Tumulty: @MG: Axelrod says obama doesn't watch election returns because the talking heads annoy him. I don't know that I believe that, but I'd like to.

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6:40 p.m. - Karen Tumulty: I haven't forgotten you guys. My computer is testing the skills of the entire tech staff in the press tent.

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6:40 p.m. - Michael Grunwald: I love watching the talking heads pretend that they don't think the election is over. In fairness: The only two hours I thought John Kerry had a chance in 2004 were the two hours after I saw the exit polls. But it's like someone has to keep yelling in their earpieces: IF McCain loses! IF!

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6:26 p.m. - James Poniewozik: Here's a political question: Why does any state close its polls at 6 p.m., anyway? I mean I know not every part of the country works on New York time, but do the poll workers need to get back in time for Jeopardy!?

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6:22 p.m. - James Poniewozik: @MG: CNN could save a lot of money simply by reporting the entire 2012 election from Second Life.

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6:18 p.m. - Michael Grunwald: How much money do you think CNN spent on this "virtual capitol"? Don't you think they could have hired some journalists to find out something about HUD or the Agriculture Department or the Education Department for that money? And don't you think the geniuses who invented it might have been better employed curing cancer or creating a new alternative energy source or at least making a cool Pixar movie?

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6:05 p.m. - James Poniewozik: Puzzling exit poll stat on Fox News: "12% say the prefer candidate who cares about people like them." Implying a landslide for the candidate who doesn't give a crap about you.

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5:52 p.m. - James Poniewozik: Here's a fun game to pass the time with: Unconventional Ways to Interpret Preliminary Exit Poll Results!

• • Keith Olbermann Complexion Index: sliding scale from "ruddy" to "ashen pallor"
• • Number of Fox News References to Contested Military Ballots in Virginia

Others?

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5:44 p.m. - James Poniewozik: Re those exit polls that Responsible People Pay No Attention To: Fox News is showing far more ankle with them, posting the percentages of white men, late deciders, etc., who went for Obama vs. McCain in individual states. And not necessarily because they all look good for McCain.

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5:39 p.m. - James Poniewozik: @KT: Am in less-than-balmy Brooklyn, eating turkey quesadillas and drinking beer—snooty, Fake American beer—I bought on my own dime. No one owns my snark, by God!

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5:37 p.m. - Michael Grunwald: @KT: I will be heading soon to watch the returns at a party in South Beach, the real heartland of America. I'm hoping that Joe the Drag Queen will be there.

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5:32 p.m. - James Poniewozik: @MG: Crazy disclosure competition—I see your Charlie Crist and raise you Mike Bloomberg! And Bernadette Castro, the convertible-sofa heiress who ran against Daniel Patrick Moynihan! And Ross Perot--in 1996, not even in 1992 when it was cool!

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5:29 p.m. - Michael Grunwald: There are already a lot of know-it-all TV pundits acting like Barack Obama has the presidency in the bag, like the voting is just a formality, like this election is already over. And they're right! Feel free to take anything I say with a grain of salt, since I was writing that this election was over when it was still tied, but it really is over. And tonight I'm going to be that insufferable I-told-you-so guy.

I'm not going to be that guy because I'm in the tank for Obama--although JP, since I agree with you about disclosure, I did vote for Obama. I'm going to be that guy because I'm really tired of the media conceit that politics is complex, and therefore requires "experts" to talk about it 19 hours a day on TV. This is what you needed to know about this election: The two-term Republican president had a 20 percent approval rating. Also: The Democratic candidate didn't suck, and had more money than God. Also: No more also. You didn't need to be an insider or an expert.

So: the fundamental things apply. And there's a corollary: Don't blame Steve Schmidt. Don't blame Sarah Palin. Don't even blame John McCain. He didn't run a perfect campaign, but the decisions he made were a lot more understandable when you remember that he had very little chance of winning this election. I thought Palin made sense as a Hail Mary; it's not McCain's fault that the pass fell incomplete. His weird operatics during the financial crisis ended up looking stupid, but they were worth a shot too. (Hillary might have taken the bait.) The William Ayers thing felt a bit lame; maybe Reverend Wright was worth a try; he probably shouldn't have waited so long to throw Bush under the bus. But I doubt any of them would have been game-changers, as the experts like to say, and if he had distanced himself from Bush too early he wouldn't have won the nomination. If you ask me, the Republicans could do a lot worse in the future than candidates like John McCain. Mavericks!

I do think the future of the Republican Party is going to be one of the interesting stories of the next couple of years; I talked about it a bit in the story I wrote about races to watch tonight. What do you guys think is going to happen to the GOP? Is it going to turn to centrists like my governor, Charlie Crist? (JP: I voted for Crist in 2006!) Is it going to drive itself off the right cliff? My Republican To Watch for tonight is Pat McCrory, the impressive seven-term mayor of Charlotte, who's got a chance to buck the Democratic tide and win the North Carolina governor's race. But he might have chosen the wrong year to run...

Anyway, KT, I'll be blogging later from a party in South Beach, so that I can get in touch with the real heartland of America.

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5:16 p.m. - Karen Tumulty: Michael Scherer confirms my weather theory with this email: Pilot of Straight Talk Air was forced to abort initial landing in Albuquerque NM, because of winds, heavy turbulence. we circled around and landed. Press cheered and sang "Highway to the Danger Zone," a regular campaign rally favorite.

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5:14 p.m. - Karen Tumulty: So, guys, where will you be watching tonight? I'm in Chicago, where the weather couldn't be more glorious. In fact, I haven't been outside on an evening this spectacular since Obama's speech in Berlin. Clearly, he's got the endorsement of the Weather Channel. I will be heading over to the site of the rally in about an hour.

The event board in my hotel says they are having something called a “presidential dinner” here. I thought that might be some premature celebrating, until I noticed that it was for something called “Plastic Surgery 2008.”

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5:19 p.m. - James Poniewozik: CNN is reporting election poll results with a bizarre graph that looks like a blue uterus. I suspect secret pro-choice propaganda.

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5:08 p.m. - James Poniewozik: CNN BREAKING NEWS: 62% of voters in the exit polls say the economy is the most important issue. Wow, these things really are informative.

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5:04 p.m. - James Poniewozik: At 5 p.m. EST, the media representatives to the exit polls were released from sequestration, rubbing their eyes from the light. They will be sharing data with the networks, which will tell you not to place to much stock in the findings but will spend the next couple hours talking about them anyway. Anchors will talk about which issues "mattered most" to respondents by way of dropping hints. Brief notes on why to take them with a grain of salt: They erred on Kerry's side in 2004; they often erred on Obama's side in 2008; early voting could mean that they air on McCain's side in 2008; we don't know if all groups of voters respond to them equally—in short, there's far too much we don't know, this year even more than before.

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4:57 p.m. - James Poniewozik: Think the "magic wall" was impressive? According to USA Today, tonight's CNN coverage will interview remote guests via hologram. (h/t The Corner.) Wolf Blitzer's roundtable is going to look like the Jedi Council.

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4:27 p.m. - James Poniewozik: This morning, since I'll have a late night tonight, I took some personal time. I went shopping for a Change of clothes. I took the car in for an oil Change. I stopped by the deli to get a bagel. "You want your Change?" the counter guy asked.

"Do I want Change?" I laughed, clasping his coin-filled hand. "My good man, I daresay I need Change. But nay—this Change does not belong to me, nor to you. This Change, sir, is for us all!"

Then I flung the coins dramatically into the air behind me. The old guy waiting for a bialy with a schmear was pissed.

OK, not really, but I did vote for Barack Obama this morning. For one last time this election, I wanted to disclose that, as I've been doing to the point of annoyance over at the Tuned In blog. Most of my colleagues choose not to do this, for practical, personal or professional reasons, and I respect that. But I figure that those of you who care should know so you can take it into account, without reading into my writing for clues.

That said, I'm just here to look at the TV coverage of the election results and call it as I see it as a critic. Long night or short, there'll be plenty to talk about. Get ready. And pay no attention to those exit polls! You'll go blind!